June 1st marks the beginning of hurricane season.  It’s been quiet for a few years but forecasters are predicting a more active 2010 season.  Here are a few thoughts for analyzing the links to municipal bonds.  Gray and Klotzbacher of Colorado State University operate the Tropical Meteorology Project believe that 2010 will be a “significantly [...]

Florida, municipal bonds

The Illinois Comptroller’s April report  is scary reading.  The state is $4.5 billion in arrears on payments to vendors and others (like school districts and service providers) with no end in sight.  The Comptroller expects 2011 to be worse.  The following chart from the report looks to me like a deteriorating structural imbalance moving towards a delicate liquidity [...]

fiscal emergency, fiscal stress, state and local politics, states

As this article from the Tax Foundation states, you can’t make this stuff up…

direct democracy, states

We have two opposing camps in the muni-market at the moment: those who say it is the next systemic shoe to drop and the rating agencies that are systemically raising ratings.
Which is right?
We have moved from a market that has had heavy intermediation from the bond insurance companies to one where investors are on their [...]

ballot initiatives, bond insurance, community development district, direct democracy, liquidity, municipal bankruptcy, municipal bond default, ratings, state and local politics, states

The tables below are for contextual reference as state and local governments face draconian spending cuts.   The combination of public policy with the several bubble periods over the last twenty-five years has created a toxic brew.  Some state and local governments are valiantly trying to tackle the issues while other legislatures and councils are more interested in [...]

fiscal stress, municipal bonds, Nevada, state and local politics, states

Several states are showing scary illiquidity.  New Jersey’s governor just yesterday impounded funds the legislature had already appropriated and announced a state of emergency.  He stopped short of “declaring” emergency, which would have given him special powers over contracts.  New Jersey comes up high on the list of states with big budget gaps, heavy pension [...]

fiscal stress, state and local politics, states

Oregon voters passed Propositions 66 and 67 yesterday which support Governor Kulongowski’s budget proposal.  The following link will give you detail on the propositions, the vote, the key donors to each campaign and the groups advocating pro and con.  Oregon is a high income tax state and ranks high among the states with large budget deficits and [...]

ballot initiatives, fiscal stress, state and local politics, state income taxes, states

Midterm congressional elections will be lively this year.   Conditions are ripe for tax and spending initiatives and numerous recall elections are also on the popular agenda.  Budget deficits, rising taxation and runaway spending are factors leading to tax and spending limitations.  Anger at the federal government sometimes gets played out at the state and local level [...]

ballot initiatives, California, direct democracy, Florida, state and local politics, states

State legislatures, required to balance their budgets, are up against the wall.  Budget gaps have worsened mid-year.  When you total the gaps going into the budget for FY2010 with mid-year fissures you come up with more than $190 billion according to a recent report from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. This is after [...]

fiscal stress, state income taxes, states